Blog Entry

Prediction: 2011 AL Cy Young

Posted on: July 22, 2011 9:35 pm
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Yesterday five of the American League's top Cy Young candidates were on display. As we approach the final two months of the regular season, each start takes on more and more importance. So who's the favorite at this point?
C.J. Wilson and the Texas Rangers took on Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels in the rubber game of a crucial three-game set. Both aces were flawless: Weaver pitched seven shutout innings, Wilson tossed a complete game. The lone run came in the second inning when outfielder Endy Chavez - known for his defensive ability - dropped a Mike Trout fly ball, allowing second baseman Howie Kendrick to score. Weaver lowered his ML-best ERA to 1.81.
Over 2,000 miles away, the Tampa Bay Rays were able to salvage a split of a four-game series with the Yankees. C.C. Sabathia took on James Shields in what was a matchup of two of the game's premier hurlers. Sabathia went the distance, allowing two runs on five hits. Shields was equally brilliant, his only blunder a Robinson Cano rbi double in the eighth inning.
We went west, then east. Now we're talking central. The Tigers sent ace Justin Verlander to the hill as they attempted to take first place in the AL Central. With his blistering fastball and devastating off speed stuff, Verlander threw eight innings of one-run ball.
At this point, Jered Weaver has to be considered the front runner. The LA ace is 13-4 with a 1.81 ERA. Although his numbers are impressive, what furthers Weaver's case is the fact that he plays for a team ranked 24th in the league in total runs scored.
Doesn't this situation seem all too familiar? Last season, Felix Hernandez won the coveted award in the American League. The Mariners scored a paltry 513 runs all season, good for last in the league. The Angels may not be the Seattle Mariners - they are actually capable of outscoring the Los Angeles Galaxy - but they are no offensive juggernaut.
As the Angels attempt to dethrone the Rangers in the AL West down the stretch, much of the burden will fall on Weaver's shoulders. If he is truly a Cy Young-worthy, LA will be in the race until the season's final days. The halos still have ten games against the defending American League champions before the end of the regular season.
Last night was impressive: the 2x All Star beat one of the league's best offenses with virtually no run support. But Jered Weaver will need more of these types of performances if he wants to become the second straight Cy Young Award winner from the AL West.
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Comments

Since: Oct 7, 2011
Posted on: October 9, 2011 1:24 pm
 

Prediction: 2011 AL Cy Young

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Since: Mar 21, 2010
Posted on: July 24, 2011 1:11 pm
 

Prediction: 2011 AL Cy Young

I respectfully have to disagree with you. Yes Jered Weaver is having a great season for the Los Angeles Angels with an earned run average of 1.81 but pitching in Angel Stadium of Anaheim allows him to have such a low earned run average just as pitching in Safeco Field allowed Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners to have a low earned run average last year and win the AL Cy Young Award. Here is the link showing how ballparks do play a role in offensive productivity or lack thereof: .

If you need more convincing that playing in a pitcher's ballpark is not helping Weaver maintain a low earned run average then look at this link to Weaver's situational statistics for this season: . Now looking at that link and as well as the Park Factors link the thing that really stands out for me is that when he pitches in a hitters's ballpark his low earned run average is not so low anymore. The three cases of this that really stand out are as follows:
1) His earned run average at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (home of the Texas Rangers) which is the best hitter's park is 3.00.
2) His earned run average at Fenway Park (home of the Boston Red Sox) which is the number fourth best hitter's park is 4.50.
3) His earned run average at U.S. Cellular Field (home of the Chicago White Sox) which is the thirteenth best hitter's park is 2.57.

So when Weaver goes into ballparks that are not as pitcher friendly as Angel Stadium of Anaheim that earned run average is not as great as advertised. This is why I do not consider Weaver a front runner for the AL Cy Young Award. The person that in my opinion is clearly the front runner for the AL Cy Young Award is CC Sabathia who leads the Major League with 14 wins and has a 2.62 earned run average while pitching for the New York Yankees who ballpark is the eighth best hitter's park in baseball.

Although I disagree with your selection of the AL Cy Young Award frontrunner, you still did a great job in writing and raising the arguments in this blog. Have a great day!


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